van der Lee, A.S., Poesch, M.S., Drake, D.A.R, and Koops M.A. 2018. Recovery Potential Modelling of Redside Dace (Clintostomus elongatus). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/nnn. vi + 39 p.

Citation: van der Lee, A.S., Poesch, M.S., Drake, D.A.R, and Koops M.A. 2018. Recovery Potential Modelling of Redside Dace (Clintostomus elongatus). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/nnn. vi + 39 p.

Abstract

The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) has assessed Redside Dace (Clintostomus elongatus) as Endangered in Canada. Here we present population modelling to determine population-based recovery targets, assess allowable harm, and conduct long-term projections of population recovery in support of a recovery potential assessment (RPA). Our analyses demonstrate that the dynamics of Redside Dace populations are particularly sensitive to perturbations that affect survival of immature individuals (from hatch to age-2) and population-level fecundity. Harm to these portions of the life cycle should be minimized to avoid jeopardizing the survival and future recovery of Canadian populations. Meta-population structure was incorporated into analyses. The manner in which catastrophes impacted segments of the meta-population influenced recovery target estimates, indicating that understanding the extent of meta-population structure throughout the species range is needed to refine recovery targets. To achieve demographic sustainability, (i.e. a self-sustaining population over the long term) under conditions with a catastrophe probability of 0.15/generation and a quasi-extinction threshold of 50 adults at a 1% probability of extinction over 100 years, population sizes ranging from 18 000 to 75 000 were required. This required between 3.2 and 13.2 ha of suitable Redside Dace habitat. We simulated three recovery effort strategies focused on improving vital rates (survival and fecundity). A declining population (λ = 0.89) required considerable improvement to individual vital rates (> 40%) to cease population decline. If, however, survival of all age-classes could be augmented simultaneously an improvement of only 13% was required. Depending on the strategy employed, recovery occurred after 48 to 120 years. Recovery efforts affecting survival of all age-classes provided the greatest improvement to population growth rate and therefore resulted in quickest recovery (48 years).

Drake, D.A.R., and M.S. Poesch. 2018. Seasonal Movement of Redside Dace (Clinostomus elongatus) in relation to abiotic and biotic factors. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/nnn. vi + xxx p.

Citation: Drake, D.A.R., and M.S. Poesch. 2018. Seasonal Movement of Redside Dace (Clinostomus elongatus) in relation to abiotic and biotic factors. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/nnn. vi + xxx p.

Abstract

Most animal populations are composed of stationary and mobile individuals, which can influence metapopulation structure and the spatial distribution of mortality. We investigated the incidence of stationarity and mobility in two relatively stable populations of Redside Dace (Berczy Creek and Leslie Tributary) in the Rouge River drainage in Canada. Multiple linear regression was used to determine if stationarity and mobility were related to stream flow attributes (mean and 90^th percentile of daily discharge; stream flow flashiness). For the mobile fraction of the population, we developed spatial interaction models to determine the abiotic (aquatic habitat variables) and biotic variables (species-level CUE of the fish assemblage) associated with movement. Results indicated a high level of movement synchrony among populations, with generally similar stationarity and movement bias depending on season. Stationarity ranged from a high of 0.74 and 0.67 (spring 2007, Berczy and Leslie, respectively) to a low of 0 and 0.07 (October – early May and early – late May, Berczy ; October – early May, Leslie). Stationarity was only weakly negatively related to stream flow attributes (mean and 90^th percentile of daily discharge), while movement bias was weakly positively and negatively related to stream flow. At the reach level, spatial interaction models indicated that distance and biotic factors (CUE of Creek Chub, Common Shiner, and White Sucker) were important predictors of the probability of moving to a reach, as were aquatic habitat variables (standard deviation of reach volume (positive), mean and standard deviation of depth (positive), and mean stream width (negative)). Results indicate that factors operating at different spatial and temporal scales (stream flow, species CUE, reach-level habitat) influence stationarity and mobility of Redside Dace, yet a substantial amount of movement variation remains unexplained by environmental factors. Future work is needed to resolve the implications of stationarity and mobility on individual and population-level mortality so that projections of extinction risk can be refined.

Poesch, M.S. and D.A. Jackson (2012) Impact of species-specific dispersal and regional stochasticity on estimates of population viability in stream metapopulations. Landscape Ecology 27: 405-416.

Abstract:

Species dispersal is a central component of metapopulation models. Spatially realistic metapopulation models, such as stochastic patch-occupancy models (SPOMs), quantify species dispersal using estimates of colonization potential based on inter-patch distance (distance decay model). In this study we compare the parameterization of SPOMs with dispersal and patch dynamics quantified directly from empirical data. For this purpose we monitored two metapopulations of an endangered minnow, redside dace (Clinostomus elongatus), using mark-recapture techniques across 43 patches, re-sampled across a 1 year period. More than 2,000 fish were marked with visible implant elastomer tags coded for patch location and dispersal and patch dynamics were monitored. We found that species-specific dispersal and distance decay models provided qualitatively similar rankings of viable patches; however, there were differences of several orders of magnitude in the estimated intrinsic mean times to extinction, from 24 and 148 years to 362 and >100,000 years, depending on the population. We also found that the rate of regional stochasicity had a dramatic impact for the estimate of species viability, and in one case altered the trajectory of our metapopulation from viable to non-viable. The divergent estimates in time to extinction times were likely due to a combination species-specific behavior, the dendritic nature of stream metapopulations, and the rate of regional stochasticity. We demonstrate the importance of developing comparative analyses using species- and patch-specific data when determining quantitative estimates for mean time to extinction, which in the case of redside dace, were highly sensitive to different estimates of dispersal.

Citation: Poesch, M.S. & Jackson, D.A. 2012. Impact of species-specific dispersal and regional stochasticity on estimates of population viability in stream metapopulations. Landscape Ecology 27: 405-416.

Also Read:

Neufeld, K.*, Watkinson, D., Tierney, K. and M.S. Poesch. (2018) Incorporating connectivity in measures of habitat suitability to assess impacts of hydrologic alteration to stream fish. Diversity and Distributions 24: 593-604.

Poesch, M.S., Lawrie, D., Tu, C., Jackson, D.A., and N.E. Mandrak (2012) Developing local and regional population estimates for an endangered freshwater minnow, the redside dace (Clinostomus elongatus), in Canada. Aquatic Conservation 22: 47-57.

Abstract:

The Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone drastic declines in freshwater fishes, with 22 species having become extinct in the past century and many more currently at risk. One such species is the endangered minnow, the redside dace (Clinostomus elongatus), which is undergoing severe declines across its entire range. Depletion and mark–recapture surveys were used to quantify population estimates of redside dace at several spatial scales (pool, reach and catchment) across several Great Lakes tributaries in Canada. There was large variation in the local population estimates and the rate of occurrence of redside dace populations. In some cases, such as Gully Creek, a Lake Huron tributary, redside dace were widespread (9/10 of pools) but in low abundances (13.5 individuals per pool ± 5.09 ). In other cases, such as in the Don River, redside dace were highly localized (2/27 pools) but in relatively high abundance (99.2 individuals/pool ± 18.1). Extrapolated population estimates at the catchment scale showed that three of the five study populations were below conservative estimates needed for long-term population viability. Differences in redside dace populations were driven by adjacent land-use. Post-hoc analyses revealed strong negative associations between population estimates and impervious land-use (i.e. urbanization) at both the pool and sub-catchment level. Immediate recovery actions that will focus on eliminating chronic and episodic impacts of adjacent land-use and improve connectivity are needed to help ensure redside dace, like many freshwater species in the Laurentian Great Lakes, remain a species at risk of – rather than facing – extinction.

Citation: Poesch, M.S., Lawrie, D., Tu, C., Jackson, D.A., and N.E. Mandrak. 2012. Developing local and regional population estimates for an endangered freshwater minnow, the redside dace (Clinostomus elongatus), in Canada. Aquatic Conservation 22: 47-57.

Also Read:

Neufeld, K.*, Watkinson, D., and Poesch, M.S. (2016) The effect of hydrologic alteration on capture efficiency of freshwater fishes in a highly modified Prairie stream: Implications for bio-monitoring programs. River Research and Applications 32: 975-983.